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莱希遇难时,到底坐的什么型号专机?俄土患难见真情,美以发声_我的网站

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一 |     "For decades now, the Pacific Ocean can be fairly described as an American lake, in which the US strategic presence is actively supported by the Australian and to a lesser extent New Zealand economic and security presence," says Joseph Camilleri, emeritus professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne.,However, with the People's Republic of China's (PRC) swift economic rise, it's hardly surprising that Beijing has started to explore new possibilities in the Pacific, according to the academic.,"What has particularly troubled the United States and its principal ally in the South Pacific, Australia, is the fact that China is making inroads into what was until now considered to be an exclusive American sphere of influence," he stresses.,On July 13, Vice President Kamala Harris told the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Suva in a virtual address that US funding for the region would be stepped up to $60 million per year for 10 years. The newly announced endeavor includes more funding for fisheries, extra aid, and offers of new US embassies in the Pacific. In particular, the US is set to ink renewed fishing treaties with Pacific island nations allowing US vessels to fish in their exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and offering greater support for maritime surveillance in the Pacific. In addition to that, the Peace Corps – the United States government's volunteer program – will return to four countries, including Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Vanuatu, according to CNN.,Australia Welcomes 'Renewed Commitment' From US Towards Pacific, Willing to Work With China11:38 GMT,"The timing of the pledge has much to do with the strategic competition between the United States and China," Camilleri explains. "In recent years, China has made considerable headway in developing its relations with [the Pacific Island Forum (PIF)] board, including cooperation in political, security and regional affairs, aid and development, COVID response and health, Ocean affairs and climate change, and much else.",The US attempt to assert its presence in the Pacific region also comes on the heels of the Quad IUU Fishing Initiative announced in late May, according to Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.,The leaders of the Quad nations — Australia, India, Japan, and the United States – proposed a maritime surveillance initiative to establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated, and unprotected (IUU) fishing. The Quad endeavor may be viewed as an extension of earlier initiatives against China's fishing activities in the South Pacific, according to the academic.,"The South Pacific region is presently one of the richest and most active fishery areas in the world," he highlights.,Why Asia Won't Reject Russia's Hydrocarbons or China's Rare Earths Despite US PressureYesterday, 18:54 GMT,Even if Half of Pacific Islands Ink China Pact, It'll be Beijing's Win,Two months ago, Beijing offered a draft agreement between China and 10 island nations spanning policing, security, fisheries, data, and a free trade zone. Some Pacific leaders have agreed to consider China's trade and security pact, while the others have voiced concerns that their rapprochement with Beijing could antagonize Washington.,"The Chinese proposal to establish a China-Pacific Islands cooperation framework agreement may not yet have won sufficient support but I expect that the Chinese side will persist with its proposal, and that it may be happy to proceed with it, even if only five or six Island states are prepared to sing such an agreement," says Camilleri.,Prior to that, in mid-April, the Chinese and the Solomon Islands governments formally signed a bilateral security agreement regardless of the displeasure voiced by the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Commenting on the pact on June 3, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscored that its purpose is "to assist the Solomon Islands in maintaining social order." He vehemently denied Western media speculation about China's apparent plans to beef up its military presence in the region.,"China has come to the South Pacific region to build roads and bridges and improve the people’s lives, not to station troops or build military bases," Wang highlighted.,© MANDEL NGANUS President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. US President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. © MANDEL NGAN,US-China Competition for Pacific Islands Region Will Intensify,As the US and China's competition for the resource-rich region unfolds, it all depends on what Washington and Beijing can offer to Pacific island nations, according to Camilleri.,"It is doubtful that the paltry sum of $60 million offered by the United States can even begin to match what China is offering, or that it will greatly impress the Pacific Islands States meeting in Fiji," the professor suggests.,Furthermore, China has made substantial progress in building trade relations with the countries of the region as well as in establishing diplomatic ties with the PIF. The People's Republic was first invited to attend the PIF-related Talk on Establishing Dialogue Partnership held in Suva, Fiji, in 1988. Since 1990, China has attended the Post-Forum Dialogue meetings on a regular basis. In 2003, China announced its willingness to further expand economic ties with PIF member countries as well as to provide funding for the forum's secretariat.,"According to official Chinese figures, from 1992 to 2021, total trade volume between China and Pacific Island Countries (PICs) having diplomatic relations with China grew from $153 million to $5.3 billion, registering an average annual increase of 13% and expanding by over 30 times in 30 years. Similarly, by the end of 2021, China’s direct investment in PICs having diplomatic relations with China had reached $2.72 billion," says Camilleri.,The competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China on the other will, if anything, gather pace and intensity in the years to come, the professor says, adding that Beijing's advantage is that "it comes to the table with a much bigger checkbook, and greater opportunities for trade and investment, especially in infrastructure projects."。

二 |     

巴以新一轮冲突不见停火迹象,以色列正准备对加沙南部城市拉法发起大规模地面进攻,这一态势,正引发国际社会强烈关切。与此同时,另外一件震惊世界的事情,也在中东发生了。据观察者网报道,伊朗总统莱希乘坐的专用直升机,5月19日在该国东阿塞拜疆省“硬着陆”,如今已超12个小时,伊朗迈赫尔通讯社发布的最新消息称,总统和外长已在坠毁事件中遇难。

三 | 事件发生后,以色列、俄罗斯、美国和土耳其都做出了反应。那么,该怎么看这件事?我们聊三个话题。

四 |

从伊朗方面对外发布的信息来看,莱希是在前往该国东阿塞拜疆省,出席了一坐大坝的开工典礼后,在返回时遭遇大雾天气,而导致专机“硬着陆”的,说直白点,就是坠机了。地点位于伊朗西北部,与土耳其、阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚相邻,距伊朗首都德黑兰600公里,是地形条件恶劣的高山地区,地面甚至没有公路能进去。

五 |

据称,与总统专机一起在开工典礼后离开的,还有另外两架直升机,但它们都已经回到目的地,只有总统专机失事。目前,伊朗方面正出动军队和专业的搜救队,前往失事地点。

六 | 虽然天气原因是导致坠机的一个很大因素,但其中也有不少疑点,包括下面五个。

一,大雾天气,总统出发前就没提前预判到?看到大雾还硬要闯,还是无法回头?二,作为一国总统的专机,在恶劣天气下竟然无法有效应对?三,另外两架应该是护卫机,为何在总统专机失事后,不就地迫降第一时间进行搜救,反而开回去了?四,周边在打仗,又是边境地区,山区密林只要被提前知道路线,极易被肩扛导弹埋伏;五,总统的随行人员一定有卫星电话吧?为何会联系不上?
这些疑惑,相信会被伊朗方面一一调查,但总统和外长同时遇难,真的是伊朗不可承受之重。
第二个,对莱希专机失事,普京做重要指示,土耳其找到“疑似残骸”。
伊朗是俄罗斯在中东地区的重要盟友,莱希的专机失事后,俄总统普京第一时间听取了相关报告,并指示紧急情况部部长,向伊朗派遣一批救援人员,协助搜索莱希乘坐的直升机。据称,俄派往伊朗协助执行搜救行动的队伍,包括47名专业人员、越野车和1架BO-105直升机。

七 | 此外,普京还第一时间召见了伊朗驻俄大使,请求向伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊,转达俄方“愿提供一切搜救所需”的信息。

八 |

此外,因为出事地点邻近土耳其,应伊朗要求,土耳其已向伊朗提供了一架带有夜视系统的直升机和一架无人机,参与搜寻伊朗总统莱希乘坐的直升机的工作。之后,土耳其无人机发现疑似载有伊朗总统的直升机残骸的热源,并将坐标分享给了伊朗

九 | 土耳其总统埃尔多安表示,得知直升机事故,他感到难过,并期待有好消息。

正所谓患难见真情,对土耳其和俄罗斯来说,都不希望莱希“出事”,因为伊朗在中东事务中,承担着非常重要的角色,特别是在目前巴以冲突的背景下,伊朗的稳定对土耳其和俄罗斯来说,都非常重要。
那么,一个人们非常关注的事情是,莱希乘坐的到底是什么型号的直升机?伊朗对外发布的信息中,并没有直接公布型号,但从图片看,是一架美国制造的“贝尔212”直升机。俄卫星通讯社发布的该机技术参数是:发动机数量2个;最多载客量13人;最大起飞重量5.3吨;最大速度260公里/小时;最大飞行高度6100米;飞行距离980公里。
伊朗发布的最新消息显示,莱希的直升机坠机地点已找到,螺旋桨以及驾驶舱被烧毁,通过热成像,无法探测到温度,没有人员生还。对此,伊朗最高领导人哈梅内伊表示,“总统失事”不会影响伊朗的国家运转。

十 |

第三个,一个许多人都想问的问题,会是以色列或美国干的吗?
之所以这样说,一来是以色列正准备从地面进攻拉法,而伊朗是哈马斯的主要支持者之一,国际社会虽然反对,但根本拦不住以色列,伊朗对此恐怕不会坐视不管;二来,以色列与伊朗之间“相互打击本土”,已经过去一个月,国际社会刚刚将关注的目光从这件事上移开,这个时候,伊以之间或者美伊之间,会不会有什么新动作,外界确实也无法判断。
此前,无论美国还是以色列,都不止一次对伊朗搞暗杀,比如伊朗曾经的“三号人物”苏莱曼尼,就是被美国用无人机暗杀的;而伊朗“核武之父”法克里扎德,则是被以色列暗杀的,在这样的背景下,伊朗总统专机失事后,以色列和美国当然会首先被当成“怀疑对象”。
以色列对此也很清楚,在第一时间就向世界各国表明,此事自己与无关。

十一 | 美国也做出了回应,发言人称拜登已听取了相关简报,目前正密切关注,没有进一步评论。

十二 | 客观讲,美以目前没有“暗杀莱希和阿卜杜拉希扬”的必要,因为巴以冲突已经让美以不堪重负了,如果再“暗杀伊朗领导人”,德黑兰不仅会开战,还将获得国际社会的广泛支持。

当然,经过调查后,如果是意外,则只是整个伊朗的巨痛;如果有其他“外在因素”,则中东地区局势恐将出现大变,让我们拭目以待。

十三 |

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